How Does This End? The Future of the U.S.-China Competition

October 7th, 2024

CSIS; Hal Brands, Jude Blanchette, Lily McElwee

This new report explores whether the United States should more clearly define the end goals for its China policy. While some argue that the United States should aim to “win” in the strategic competition against China, others advocate for a managed competition, avoiding conflict while strengthening the global rules-based order. This report advances the debate with contributions from over 20 leading experts on China and grand strategy, aiming to deepen discussion on how the United States should navigate an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.

Don’t Sweat the AGI Race

September 30th, 2025

RAND Corporation; Hal Brands

This paper is intended for policymakers and subject-matter experts on technology policy and national security. In it, the author challenges the idea that racing for AGI will cause catastrophic instability, in part by critiquing the theoretical concepts and historical analysis that often underpin such arguments. He argues that many of those claims rest on questionable assumptions about the causes and costs of international instability or about the likely impact of AGI on great-power rivalry.

Should America Encourage Nuclear Proliferation in Asia?

October 29th, 2025

RSIS; Hal Brands

Should America encourage nuclear proliferation by its friends and allies in Asia? A shifting military balance and uncertainty about US commitments are intensifying the debate. This piece explores why allied proliferation might be a good thing – but is probably still a dangerous, destabilising idea.